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A horse trains on the Polytrack racing surface at Keeneland Race Track, Lexington, KY.
Synthetic Dirt Muddies Kentucky Derby Handicapping
by
findingDulcinea Staff
This year's entrants have run many more races over synthetic surfaces than past fields. Fans wonder how these horses will adjust to Churchill Downs’ dirt track.
30-Second Summary
Handicapping the Kentucky Derby, with its large fields of inexperienced horses, has always been difficult, but the rise of synthetic dirt tracks in the past few years turns it into even more of a guessing game.
Synthetic dirt is designed to reduce horse injuries. Turfway Park installed it in 2005 and had a drastic reduction in catastrophic injuries, down to three from 24 in the previous year.
Barbaro’s fatal injury in the 2006 Preakness Stakes brought national attention to the issue of horse safety and encouraged the switch to synthetic dirt. In 2006, Keeneland became the highest-profile track to make the switch, and the State of California mandated that all tracks do the same.
But there are many in the horse racing community who reject the use of synthetic dirt, arguing that it produces less exciting races and a rise in minor injuries.
Handicappers have also found it difficult to translate results on synthetic tracks to traditional dirt tracks. “Judging how horses will make the transition from Poly to dirt is guesswork, not handicapping,” writes Andrew Beyer.
As a result, this year’s race is less predictable than it ever has been and may result in long-odds horses finishing in the money.
Synthetic dirt is designed to reduce horse injuries. Turfway Park installed it in 2005 and had a drastic reduction in catastrophic injuries, down to three from 24 in the previous year.
Barbaro’s fatal injury in the 2006 Preakness Stakes brought national attention to the issue of horse safety and encouraged the switch to synthetic dirt. In 2006, Keeneland became the highest-profile track to make the switch, and the State of California mandated that all tracks do the same.
But there are many in the horse racing community who reject the use of synthetic dirt, arguing that it produces less exciting races and a rise in minor injuries.
Handicappers have also found it difficult to translate results on synthetic tracks to traditional dirt tracks. “Judging how horses will make the transition from Poly to dirt is guesswork, not handicapping,” writes Andrew Beyer.
As a result, this year’s race is less predictable than it ever has been and may result in long-odds horses finishing in the money.
Headline Link: A new era for handicapping
The increased popularity of synthetic tracks has created a third surface, after turf and dirt. Handicappers haven't figured out how to accurately compare a horse’s form on synthetic dirt to races on dirt, and thus, as writer Ed McNamara notes in Newsday, it is a “new era for handicapping.”
Source: Newsday
Background: The rise of synthetic dirt tracks
Synthetic dirt was first introduced in the 1980s, but it wasn’t until the 2005 installation at Turfway that it became a serious alternative to dirt. The softer surface—a wax-coated combination of sand, rubber and synthetic fibers—was more forgiving on the horses’ legs and produced far fewer serious injuries.
Source: NBC/AP
The broken leg suffered by Barbaro in the Preakness Stakes seemed to validate the spread of synthetic dirt to minimize injury. French trainer Patrick Biancone was a particularly passionate supporter: “No one has had the guts to look forward and take advantage of the science and technology available. There has to be a better way to keep these animals and these riders safe. This is one of them.”
Source: New York Times
Opinion & Analysis: Criticisms of synthetic dirt
Hall-of-Fame trainer Nick Zito dislikes the use of synthetic dirt because it has changed the way races are run. He says that it runs more like turf than dirt and he worries that dirt races, which he calls “the most exciting thing in the world,” will be changed forever. “We all want to save horses but now we're talking about the game. … The issue is the game. That’s what's important.”
Source: New York Daily News
Andrew Beyer, creator of the Beyer Speed Figure, has been one of the biggest critics of synthetic turf. He says that it creates an “ugly style of racing” in which the field runs in a slow, tight pack until it turns into a mad dash in the final quarter mile. He also bemoans the erratic results that make it impossible to predict how horses will adjust to each surface: “the synthetic-track factor has partly spoiled handicapping.”
Source: Washington Post
Reference: Synthetic dirt manufacturers
Polytrack is the most popular synthetic dirt track, having been installed at nine tracks worldwide. Its Web site features installation information, injury statistics and research findings.
Source: Polytrack
Cushion Track has been installed at Santa Anita and Hollywood Park.
Source: Cushion Track
Related Topics: Kentucky Derby Information and Analysis
FindingDulcinea published a story on the wide-open field at this year’s Kentucky Derby, caused by an even field and the difficulty of evaluating synthetic dirt races. The unpredictability may lead to large payouts for winning bettors.
Source: findingDulcinea
The findingDulcinea Kentucky Derby Web Guide links to the best sources for news and handicapping analysis of the Derby.
Source: findingDulcinea
The findingDulcinea Web Guide to Horse Racing covers the history of horse racing, and explains the different types of races and surfaces in the modern sport.
Source: findingDulcinea
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