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Cell Phone and GPS Service Disruptions Likely with Increased Sunspot Activity
by
findingDulcinea Staff
As the sun moves into solar maximum from solar minimum, increased sunspot activity is expected, which will mean an increase in the disruption of satellite-dependent services such as GPS and cell phones.
30-Second Summary
Dr. Eric Christian of NASA-Goddard U.S. Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C., describes sunspots as "dark, cool areas of the sun’s surface where charged particles are emitted.” Sunspots do not directly impact the earth, but the solar storms they create, comprising solar flares and coronal mass ejection (C.M.E.), can interfere with and sometimes shut down satellites.
Solar storms have disrupted communications technology since the mid 1800s, when the telegraph was in use. Disruptions knocked out power grids, causing a blackout in Quebec in 1989. In 1997, solar storms incapacitated and led to the decommissioning of a $200 million communications satellite.
Even air travel has been disrupted by solar storms. In 2003 passenger aircraft on polar routes, which go over the Earth's poles to reduce both fuel costs and travel time, were redirected due to communications blackouts. It can cost an airline up to $100,000 to reroute a polar flight.
In March 2006, scientists predicted that the next solar cycle could be up to 50 percent stronger than the last one, making for some of the most intense solar phenomena since the late 1950s. Scientists formulated this prediction using a new computer model that allows them to forecast solar cycles with 98 percent accuracy.
Solar storms have disrupted communications technology since the mid 1800s, when the telegraph was in use. Disruptions knocked out power grids, causing a blackout in Quebec in 1989. In 1997, solar storms incapacitated and led to the decommissioning of a $200 million communications satellite.
Even air travel has been disrupted by solar storms. In 2003 passenger aircraft on polar routes, which go over the Earth's poles to reduce both fuel costs and travel time, were redirected due to communications blackouts. It can cost an airline up to $100,000 to reroute a polar flight.
In March 2006, scientists predicted that the next solar cycle could be up to 50 percent stronger than the last one, making for some of the most intense solar phenomena since the late 1950s. Scientists formulated this prediction using a new computer model that allows them to forecast solar cycles with 98 percent accuracy.
Headlines: Increased sunspot activity in a digital age
"We are set up for a nasty surprise," said Thomas Bogdan, director of the federal Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., the largest of 13 international space weather warning centers. "There are going to be impacts on all these services in the next few years."
Source: The Wall Street Journal
Background: Sunspots, solar cycles
According to Dr. Eric Christian, of NASA-Goddard U.S. Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C., “Sunspots are dark, cool areas of the sun’s surface where charged particles are emitted.…When a sunspot erupts, we call this a solar flare. When a solar flare occurs, gas heat of more than tens of thousands of degrees and energy surpassing billions of atomic bombs is hurled out from the sun. Another type of explosion is the C.M.E, or coronal mass ejection….Both…can be very disruptive to human activity on Earth and in space.”
Source: NASA
"The earth has a protective cocoon of magnetic field called the magnetosphere, and it normally protects us from the magnetic particles of the solar wind.…But during a coronal mass ejection we actually have a chunk of the sun that breaks away and hits the earth's magnetosphere, and disturbs it, and this disturbance shows up as aurorae," explains George Fischer, a solar astronomer at the University of California.
Source: Exploratorium
According to Doug Biesecker, a solar physicist from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Space Environment Center in Colorado, the next cycle of solar storms will most likely begin in March 2008 and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012. These solar storms have the capacity to disrupt “transportation, security and emergency response systems, telecommunications and other wireless networks and electronic equipment.”
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Impact: Disruption of satellites, cell phones, GPS (global positioning systems)
December 2006 saw a number of surprisingly severe solar flares that resulted in a large number of receivers being unable to track the GPS signal, causing a disruption in the network. “At its peak the burst produced 20,000 times more radio emission than the entire rest of the sun. This was enough to swamp GPS receivers over the entire sunlit side of Earth,” stated Dale Gary of the New Jersey Institute of Technology.
Source: New Scientist
Solar storms have impacted communications technology for almost 160 years. During the Korean War, vital communications were disrupted and in 1989 solar storms knocked out power grids in Quebec causing a blackout that affected five million people.
Source: Space Weather
Scientists announced in March 2006 that “the next sunspot cycle will be 30 to 50 percent stronger than the last one” and have the potential to be the most intense solar cycle since the late 1950s. Historically, the North and Northeastern areas of North America are more vulnerable to system outages. The spokesman for the California Independent System Operator explained that this is possibly because, among other things, there is a higher iron and mineral content in the North and Northeast that conducts the ground current more easily.
Source: San Francisco Chronicle
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