In This Article
30-Second Summary
Headline Links: NASA audits survey and pilots fall asleep at the wheel
Background: The congressional hearing and the survey in the press
Opinion & Analysis: Does lax methodology invalidate NASA’s survey?
Related Topics: Air controllers retire in record numbers
Reference Material: Accident statistics and the evolution of aviation safety
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NASA Airline Safety Survey Beset with Controversy
by
findingDulcinea Staff
The four-year long survey suggests fatigue-inspired mistakes, near collisions and runway interference are more common than previously thought, but NASA’s top official doubts the data’s validity.
30-Second Summary
Reports first surfaced about NASA’s aviation safety review on Oct. 22, after the agency denied a Freedom of Information Act request for the data made by the Associated Press.
In a letter to the AP, NASA Associate Administrator Thomas S. Luedtke claimed that the disclosure “could materially affect the public confidence in, and the commercial welfare of, the air carriers.”
This reasoning quickly drew ire from lawmakers and the media, resulting in a congressional hearing on Oct. 31.
NASA Administrator Michael Griffin told the House Committee on Science and Technology that he disagreed with Luedtke’s initial rationale, pledging that his agency would make the survey public within the year.
Griffin also raised doubts about the reliability of the $11.3 million, tax-payer funded survey: “There may be reason to question the validity of the methodology.”
Griffin’s misgivings are supported by an opinion piece in New Scientist magazine, which states, “NASA appears to have counted some incidents more than once. Pilots were given anonymity, so NASA can't tell when several reports of an incident refer to the same event.”
Robert Dodd, the space agency’s former head of the research project, denied Griffin’s allegations. He told lawmakers that the survey was based on outstanding science, and that NASA’s justifications for withholding the data were “without merit.”
Although the survey comes during one of the safest periods in air travel history—the last fatal crash in the United States was the 2001 Comair 5191—it may be a while before air travelers learn whether flying is more dangerous than they previously thought.
Nonetheless, NASA’s inspector general announced on Nov. 7 that it is auditing the handling of the survey to determine whether, as Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY) put it during the Oct. 31 hearing, “we've just thrown $11 million down a rat hole.”
In a letter to the AP, NASA Associate Administrator Thomas S. Luedtke claimed that the disclosure “could materially affect the public confidence in, and the commercial welfare of, the air carriers.”
This reasoning quickly drew ire from lawmakers and the media, resulting in a congressional hearing on Oct. 31.
NASA Administrator Michael Griffin told the House Committee on Science and Technology that he disagreed with Luedtke’s initial rationale, pledging that his agency would make the survey public within the year.
Griffin also raised doubts about the reliability of the $11.3 million, tax-payer funded survey: “There may be reason to question the validity of the methodology.”
Griffin’s misgivings are supported by an opinion piece in New Scientist magazine, which states, “NASA appears to have counted some incidents more than once. Pilots were given anonymity, so NASA can't tell when several reports of an incident refer to the same event.”
Robert Dodd, the space agency’s former head of the research project, denied Griffin’s allegations. He told lawmakers that the survey was based on outstanding science, and that NASA’s justifications for withholding the data were “without merit.”
Although the survey comes during one of the safest periods in air travel history—the last fatal crash in the United States was the 2001 Comair 5191—it may be a while before air travelers learn whether flying is more dangerous than they previously thought.
Nonetheless, NASA’s inspector general announced on Nov. 7 that it is auditing the handling of the survey to determine whether, as Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY) put it during the Oct. 31 hearing, “we've just thrown $11 million down a rat hole.”
Headline Links: NASA audits survey and pilots fall asleep at the wheel
The survey, called the National Aviation Operations Monitoring Survey (NAOMS), consists of anonymous interviews with 24,000 commercial air pilots and 5,000 general aviation pilots. Conducted by the Batelle Memorial Institute, the report is now the subject of an internal probe by the inspector general of NASA. “The audit will initially focus on the history and status of NAOMS, including its objectives, funding, and plans for future use of the data,” Executive Officer for the Inspector General Renee Juhans told the Associated Press.
Source: The Boston Globe
On Nov. 8, 2007, USA Today reported that its own analysis of NASA’s air safety records showed six incidents since 2003 in which pilots had fallen asleep in mid-flight. Although these events represent only a very small percentage of the more than 40 million flights made during the period, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has attributed pilot fatigue to 10 airline crashes since 1993, which resulted in 260 deaths.
Source: USA Today
The Rocky Mountain News reports on a 2004 incident in which two pilots fell asleep during their approach to Denver International Airport. In an anonymous incident report filed in the Accident Database of the NTSB Web site, the pilot said that his jet entered the crowded airspace surrounding DIA going 608 mph instead of the required 287 mph. The article cites the pilot’s report: "I woke up, why I don't know, and heard frantic calls from ATC [air traffic control] … I answered ATC and abided by all instructions to get down. Woke FO [first officer] up."
Source: Rocky Mountain News
Background: The congressional hearing and the survey in the press
The congressional hearing
On Oct. 31, 2007, NASA Administrator Dr. Michael Griffin went in front of the House Committee on Science and Technology to explain why the agency had refused to publish its survey findings. Griffin agreed to release the data within the year, but not without raising questions about the validity of its findings. However, Jon Krosnick, a professor at Stanford University who helped develop the survey, contested Griffin’s assertions, arguing that the study conformed to the highest academic standards.
Source: National Public Radio
During the hearing, Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee Chairman Mark Udall reprimanded Griffin for the way his agency has handled the survey controversy: “NASA has a very important responsibility to protect public safety and to be held accountable for taxpayer funds—neither of these obligations has been met in NASA’s handling of the aviation study. The safety of the public has to be our first priority, especially with more and more Americans flying every year. Although Administrator Griffin delivered the data to the committee, I call on him to make the entire study public as soon as possible so airlines can take the proper precautions to protect their passengers.”
Source: The official Web site of the House Committee on Science and Technology
The survey in the press
The Associated Press first revealed NASA’s refusal to divulge the aviation study in an Oct. 24 article titled “NASA Sits on Air Safety Survey.” According to the article, the AP requested the survey over 14 months prior to receiving Luedtke’s denial letter. The study was first proposed in 1997 as part of an initiative to reduce fatal air crashes by 80 percent by 2007. Crashes have actually dropped 65 percent, with an average of 1 fatality for every 4.5 million departures.
Source: The San Jose Mercury News
Critics were quick to decry NASA’s silence, with Rep. Bart Gordon (D-Tenn.) likening the agency’s initial rationale to a drug company’s refusal to reveal inopportune test results: “This is like a drug manufacturer finding out through trials that there are problems with a drug and not making the public aware because they don't want to reduce the sales of the drug or scare the public.”
Source: The Washington Post
Opinion & Analysis: Does lax methodology invalidate NASA’s survey?
In an opinion piece titled “NASA Blows Millions on Flawed Airline Safety Survey,” New Scientist magazine points out some serious methodological problems with NASA’s survey: “NASA appears to have counted some incidents more than once. Pilots were given anonymity, so NASA can't tell when several reports of an incident refer to the same event. Explaining the gaffe to the House Committee on Science and Technology on 31 October, NASA chief Mike Griffin admitted the figures were ‘simply not credible.’”
Source: New Scientist (subscription required)
An Oct. 29 opinion article in the aviation trade magazine Flight International opines that even if the survey’s methodology is flawed, the information contained therein remains valuable: “Some FAA officials have implied the way this data was collected somehow lowers its value. But even if that supposition had some foundation, would it deprive the data of all value? That seems rather unlikely for a survey that has produced an invaluable indication that crews are under-reporting on operational safety issues. And how will the FAA know what value the data has until it has had a chance to view it?”
Source: Flight International
Related Topics: Air controllers retire in record numbers
Veteran air traffic controllers are retiring in unprecedented numbers. Although the Federal Aviation Administration maintains that this does not negatively affect its workforce, the National Air Traffic Controllers Association has issued several warnings about the safety risks of overworked controllers in undermanned air control traffic centers.
Source: Time
Reference Material: Accident statistics and the evolution of aviation safety
The National Transportation Safety Board makes all of its incident reports available to the public via its Accident Database. The database allows users to search incidents using dates, cities, states, countries and key words.
Source: The Accident Database from the National Transportation Safety Board’s Web site
The National Transportation Safety Board also provides tables and statistics on aviation accidents from 1998 to 2006.
Source: The Official Web site of the National Transportation Safety Board
The evolution of aviation safety has been as much the product of innovation as it has been a response to past incidents. Popular Mechanics outlines the 10 airline accidents that have most helped air travel become what it is today.
Source: Popular Mechanics
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