In This Article
Subscribe to National Updates
Rush Limbaugh
Effectiveness of ‘Operation Chaos’ Questioned as Limbaugh Switches to Obama
May 08, 2008 4:28 PM
by
findingDulcinea Staff
by Chris Coats
The effect of Rush Limbaugh’s strategy to convince Republicans to vote in Democratic primaries comes under scrutiny after Clinton’s narrow win in Indiana.
The effect of Rush Limbaugh’s strategy to convince Republicans to vote in Democratic primaries comes under scrutiny after Clinton’s narrow win in Indiana.
Email This30-Second Summary
After months of advising his listeners to extend the Democratic primary and damage both candidates by crossing party lines to vote for Hillary Clinton, radio host Rush Limbaugh has shifted directions, now urging them to support Barack Obama. He dubbed these efforts “Operation Chaos.”
After weeks of press scrutiny regarding Obama's past relationships with controversial figures, Limbaugh announced that he believes Obama to be the weaker candidate.
Although Limbaugh has publicly claimed responsibility for Clinton wins in various open primary states, it is virtually impossible to determine how many Republicans heeded his call.
After a narrow loss in Indiana, Obama surrogate Sen. John Kerry noted Chaos’ effect, stating that Clinton’s eight percent victory in the Republican vote came as a direct result of Limbaugh. Clinton’s final lead over Obama equaled about 14,000 votes.
Exit polls did suggest that about seven percent of voters who cast their support for Clinton in Indiana would switch to McCain should she earn the nomination.
While critics point to Indiana as proof of Limbaugh’s impact, Obama’s success with Republicans in earlier states counter that argument.
Limbaugh’s efforts began in February 2008 during a string of primary losses by Clinton, closely mirroring an effort early in the Republican contest when blogger Markos Moulitsas advocated Democrats crossing over to support Mike Huckabee to prolong the Republican primary season.
After weeks of press scrutiny regarding Obama's past relationships with controversial figures, Limbaugh announced that he believes Obama to be the weaker candidate.
Although Limbaugh has publicly claimed responsibility for Clinton wins in various open primary states, it is virtually impossible to determine how many Republicans heeded his call.
After a narrow loss in Indiana, Obama surrogate Sen. John Kerry noted Chaos’ effect, stating that Clinton’s eight percent victory in the Republican vote came as a direct result of Limbaugh. Clinton’s final lead over Obama equaled about 14,000 votes.
Exit polls did suggest that about seven percent of voters who cast their support for Clinton in Indiana would switch to McCain should she earn the nomination.
While critics point to Indiana as proof of Limbaugh’s impact, Obama’s success with Republicans in earlier states counter that argument.
Limbaugh’s efforts began in February 2008 during a string of primary losses by Clinton, closely mirroring an effort early in the Republican contest when blogger Markos Moulitsas advocated Democrats crossing over to support Mike Huckabee to prolong the Republican primary season.
Headline Links: A real effect in Indiana?
A number of states have seen “droves” of Republicans crossing party lines to vote in primaries, though anecdotal reports show them making the effort to vote for both Democratic candidates. The Indianapolis Star did find a large number of “hardcore Republicans” making the switch, but it remains impossible for conclusions to be drawn about exactly why they did so.
Source: The Indianapolis Star
After a win in North Carolina and a near tie in Indiana shifted the primary campaign’s momentum towards Obama, and after weeks of scrutiny about his relationships with controversial figures, Limbaugh has now turned his attention to Barack Obama. Now believing Obama to be the weaker candidate in the general election, the radio host has begun advising his listeners to switch party affiliations to vote for Obama, assuring the nomination of what he believes to be “the weakest Democratic candidate.”
Source: CNN
Background: Not the first of its kind
Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos closely mirrors an effort by blogger Markos Moulitsas, better known as Kos, to recruit Democrats to cross over to vote for Mike Huckabee in the Michigan primary, when candidate Mitt Romney led the field. Michigan has lost the right to seat its delegates as punishment for moving its primary date, negating any Democratic vote.
Source: Daily Kos
Kos pointed to what he described as a similar effort by Republicans in Michigan in 1972 when Republicans crossed party lines to deliver a substantial win to segregationist candidate George Wallace in the Democratic Primary. That year, Democrats saw 1.3 million voters, compared to 300,000 the year before.
Source: Rhodes Cook
Reactions: Reading the tea leaves
Crunching the numbers from the Indiana Primary on May 6, which ended in a 51 percent to 49 percent win for Clinton, Sam Stein at The Huffington Post found about seven percent of those who voted for Clinton said they would switch to McCain should Clinton get the nomination. In real terms, if one million Indianans voted for Clinton, as they did for Kerry in 2004, it would translate to a loss of 70,000 votes.
Source: The Huffington Post
Regardless of whether Limbaugh’s efforts have any actual effect, they have attracted a fair amount of media attention, including segments on major news programs, with treatment ranging from mocking to aggressive.
Source: YouTube
While some point to the results in Indiana as proof of Limbaugh’s influence, Obama’s success among Republicans in earlier states suggests otherwise.
Source: The Washington Post (free registration may be required)
Opinion & Analysis: No way to tell
Despite an inability to quantify his effect, Limbaugh has claimed responsibility for the prolonged Democratic primary, stating that his intention of creating confusion and encouraging inter-party strife has been achieved.
Source: The Rush Limbaugh Show
MSNBC pointed to Clinton’s narrow victory in Indiana to suggest that if Limbaugh’s efforts had any effect at all, they were too minimal to have any substantial impact.
Source: Crooks and Liars
The New York Times found that in the run-up to the primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, there were indeed many Republicans crossing party lines to vote for Democrats, but it had less to do with Limbaugh’s appeal than with general disappointment with John McCain.
Source: The New York Times (free subscription may be required)
Reference: The candidates
For more information on the two remaining Democratic candidates, visit findingDulcinea’s campaign guide, which hosts profiles of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Source: findingDulcinea
© 2008 Dulcinea Media, Inc.
