Election News and Features
Youth Vote Growing Fast But Still Dwarfed by Seniors
April 28, 2008 03:33 PM
by
findingDulcinea Staff
The youth voting bloc has grown again this year, inviting praise for its potential and criticism of its dependability.
30-Second Summary
Often derided as an undependable and over-hyped voting bloc, the youth vote—defined as those between the ages of 18 and 29—has seen a steady increase in registration and participation in this year’s primary season.
Noticeably absent from elections in the 1990s and 2000, the youth vote is at its most active since the presidential contest of 1972.
Thus far, the increase has been most visible on the Democratic side, with younger voters leaning specifically toward the candidacy of Barack Obama.
Some critics have downplayed the increase, painting the youth vote as a fickle bloc that has proven to be undependable in the general election.
“Younger voters are a difficult lover to have,” Lawrence Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics at the University of Minnesota, told the San Francisco Chronicle. “They’re a voting bloc that can betray you and is often quite whimsical.”
Comparing them to the more reliable senior vote, Jacobs suggested those voters over 60 would be far more important in the coming months.
Indeed, this week saw Obama publicly announce that his campaign needed to put far more effort into reaching out to seniors, a bloc that has leaned decidedly toward Hillary Clinton in every primary held so far.
Despite young voters' increased participation this year, voters over the age of 60 have made up a much larger percentage of primary voters, averaging around double that of young voters.
Noticeably absent from elections in the 1990s and 2000, the youth vote is at its most active since the presidential contest of 1972.
Thus far, the increase has been most visible on the Democratic side, with younger voters leaning specifically toward the candidacy of Barack Obama.
Some critics have downplayed the increase, painting the youth vote as a fickle bloc that has proven to be undependable in the general election.
“Younger voters are a difficult lover to have,” Lawrence Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics at the University of Minnesota, told the San Francisco Chronicle. “They’re a voting bloc that can betray you and is often quite whimsical.”
Comparing them to the more reliable senior vote, Jacobs suggested those voters over 60 would be far more important in the coming months.
Indeed, this week saw Obama publicly announce that his campaign needed to put far more effort into reaching out to seniors, a bloc that has leaned decidedly toward Hillary Clinton in every primary held so far.
Despite young voters' increased participation this year, voters over the age of 60 have made up a much larger percentage of primary voters, averaging around double that of young voters.
Headline Links: The youth vote in 2008
Citing sharp increases in voting participation among young people, the Washington Post suggests that young voters will indeed have a larger role in this year’s presidential election. Already, Tennessee saw its young voting bloc quadruple. One study called the activity a “civic reawakening of a new generation.”
Source: The Washington Post
The Harvard Kennedy School of Government found that currently, young voters favor Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton by a margin of 70 to 30 percent, and give the Illinois senator a far more decisive lead in a hypothetical match-up against John McCain than his Democratic opponent. The study suggests that either candidate’s success in 2008 could hinge on the ability to motivate the youth vote.
Source: The Harvard Kennedy School of Government
Background: Voter turnout during primaries
The extended Democratic primary has seen spikes in voter registration and participation, with an estimated one million new Democrats in the last seven primary contests alone. These include both new voters and Republicans switching parties.
Source: The Washington Post
A Pew Research study found that most primaries held on Super Tuesday (Feb. 5) of this year saw significant increases in young voters, defined as those between the ages of 18 and 29.
Source: Pew Research
Audio: Technology aiding youth turnout
Observers have pointed to the wide availability of political news, which comes courtesy of new Web-based technologies, for the increase in young voters. The candidates’ willingness to embrace these technologies, including social networking sites, has made them more accessible and relatable to the youth vote.
Source: NPR [Audio File]
Reaction: Obama courts seniors
After losses in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Barack Obama remarked that he would need to make a greater appeal to senior voters—a larger and more organized bloc that has tended to side with Hillary Clinton.
Source: Politico
Opinion & Analysis: Faith in youth?
Despite noticeable increases in young voters, the San Francisco Chronicle reports that their participation is not as important or as dependable as senior voters. While senior participation has seen a steady increase, young voters are a “bloc that can betray you and is often quite whimsical."
Source: The San Francisco Chronicle
Paul Waldman argued last year that the youth vote is far from undependable, noting steady increases in registration and participation in 2000 and 2004, and suggests that it could spell success for Barack Obama. Citing a Pew research report, Waldman says young voters tend to be more progressive, and lean toward Obama.
Source: The American Prospect
Republican David Hill hopes the Democratic Party invests time and money in the youth vote, because he believes it will ultimately end in their defeat. Hill cites years of low voter turnout among young people to suggest that all of the attention paid to the voting bloc can be better spent elsewhere.
Source: The Hill
A new book entitled, “Millennial Makeover, MySpace, YouTube & the Future of American Politics,” asserts that the country’s political future is in the hands of a demographic group called “Millennials” (citizens born between 1982 and 2003). The authors say the country’s nearly 100 million Millenials are ethnically diverse, politically progressive, and concerned with problem-solving, not debating moral issues. The group’s interconnectivity, made possible through new technologies, is said to drive Millennial decision-making and aid the group in organizing itself.
Source: The Mercury News
Key Players: The candidates
For more information on the two remaining Democratic candidates, visit findingDulcinea’s Election 2008 Web Guide, which hosts profiles of both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
Source: findingDulcinea
Reference: Rock the Vote, AARP
According to Rock the Vote, 2008 will see 44 million eligible youth voters, though it remains unclear whether any candidate will be able to rouse the attention of the voting bloc.
Source: Rock the Vote
Hitting a record high in 1972, the youth vote steadily declined almost every year since. At the same time, the senior vote has doubled, thanks in part to efforts of senior rights groups, such as the AARP, which was identified as a viable political force around the same time the youth vote began its decline.
Source: Time magazine
© 2009 Dulcinea Media, Inc.
