In This Article
Subscribe to Politics Updates
Democrats Prepare for Tuesday’s Pivotal Contests
by
findingDulcinea Staff
A one-of-a-kind election system and a diverse electorate await candidates in Texas. Tomorrow's contests there and in Ohio may prove decisive.
30-Second Summary
Both candidates have been ahead in the Texas and Ohio polls at some point in the last two weeks. But, with only a day to go, they are currently locked in a virtual dead heat in a contest many have called a must-win for Hillary Clinton.
Technically scheduled for Tuesday, March 4, the Texas primary has actually been under way since the state’s 10-day early voting period began on Feb. 19. During that time the Lone Star State saw dramatic spikes in voter turnout.
Separated into two different votes, the Texas contest will begin with a statewide primary, broken down into congressional districts. Once voters have cast their ballots in the primary, they can attend a caucus to be held at 7:15 p.m. and vote again, but only if they have already voted in the primary.
The number of Democratic delegates awarded to each district will be based on their voter turnout from the 2004 presidential election and the 2006 gubernatorial race. The higher the previous turnout, the more delegates a district receives.
Although the strong lead she once enjoyed has evaporated, Clinton has remained popular among Latinos across Texas, a voting block that will make up about 37 percent of likely primary voters.
Meanwhile, Obama has gained traction with all other groups, making the contest simply too close to predict.
Technically scheduled for Tuesday, March 4, the Texas primary has actually been under way since the state’s 10-day early voting period began on Feb. 19. During that time the Lone Star State saw dramatic spikes in voter turnout.
Separated into two different votes, the Texas contest will begin with a statewide primary, broken down into congressional districts. Once voters have cast their ballots in the primary, they can attend a caucus to be held at 7:15 p.m. and vote again, but only if they have already voted in the primary.
The number of Democratic delegates awarded to each district will be based on their voter turnout from the 2004 presidential election and the 2006 gubernatorial race. The higher the previous turnout, the more delegates a district receives.
Although the strong lead she once enjoyed has evaporated, Clinton has remained popular among Latinos across Texas, a voting block that will make up about 37 percent of likely primary voters.
Meanwhile, Obama has gained traction with all other groups, making the contest simply too close to predict.
Headline Links: Preparing for Texas
The New Republic breaks down the Texas primary contest, offering an explanation for what the magazine describes as “the most ludicrous, convoluted, and downright screwy Democratic primary system in America.” The article also traces the evolution of Texas’ primary system, which prior to 1976, amounted to “little more than local turf wars between the liberal and the conservative wings of the party establishment.”
Source: The New Republic
Fort-Worth newspaper the Star-Telegram reports that the latest polls show the two Democratic candidates are neck-and-neck in Texas, which means that the major battlegrounds will be “East and Central Texas, where Obama leads Clinton by just 5 points.”
Source: Star-Telegram
Background: Obama gains momentum before March 4
Public opinion tracker Zogby International offers a glimpse of the latest polls out of Texas and Ohio, including a demographic breakdown of each candidate’s support base. According to the site, Obama is 4 points ahead of Clinton in Texas while the New York senator maintains a 1 point lead in Ohio.
Source: Zogby International
The Boston Globe looks at Barack Obama’s momentum going into Tuesday’s contest in Texas: “Obama has been so successful at building the appearance of momentum that he has reversed the conventional wisdom: What was once considered fertile ground for Hillary Clinton is now assumed to be Obama country. A win in Texas could be Obama's knockout blow—but a loss … may sting a little more than was assumed a few weeks ago."
Source: The Boston Globe (registration may be required)
The New York Times takes a look at the record voter turnout during Texas’ 10-day early voting period that ended on Feb. 29. According to the Times, “In the state’s 15 most populous counties, 805,000 people have voted, compared with 169,000 for the same period in 2004, according to the Texas secretary of state, Phil Wilson. Of those, 601,000 have been Democrats.”
Source: The New York Times (free registration required)
On Feb. 20, former President Bill Clinton told a crowd in Beaumont, Texas, that the primary contests in Texas and Ohio are must-wins for his wife’s campaign, a sentiment echoed by a number of political observers. “If she wins Texas and Ohio I think she will be the nominee. If you don't deliver for her, I don't think she can be. It's all on you," Clinton told audience members.
Source: ABC News
Analysis: Dissecting the Lone Star State
The Dallas Morning News editorial page outlines how the Texas delegates will be awarded on Tuesday. “Texas gets 228 delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Of that total, 126 delegates—broken down by the 31 state Senate districts—will be allotted through the primary vote, which includes early balloting already under way … An additional 67 delegates are determined by the Tuesday evening caucus vote … An additional 35 will go to the national convention as 'unpledged' delegates free to vote as they choose,” writes the Morning News.
Source: The Dallas Morning News
The Houston Chronicle underscores the importance of East Texas in deciding the Democratic contests. With Clinton “in control of South Texas” and Obama “apparently owning Houston and Dallas,” the newspaper states that the “one-time bastion of the Texas Democratic Party” known as East Texas continues to shift between the two candidates.
Source: Houston Chronicle
The Huffington Post speaks with University of Texas government professor and presidential scholar Bruce Buchanan about the broad demographics that help make the union’s second largest state such a challenge for campaigners.
Source: The Huffington Post
Opinion: Is Texas Clinton’s Alamo?
Atlantic Monthly writer Marc Ambinder crunches the recent polls numbers and the current delegate count in order to show “how tough it will be for Hillary Clinton to catch up to Barack Obama's earned delegate lead.” With state-by-state projections of the rest of the season’s contests, Ambinder concludes that even “under the most rosy of scenarios,” Obama will maintain a lead of about 100 delegates.
Source: Atlantic Monthly writer Marc Ambinder’s blog
Former Democratic candidate Bill Richardson joined others in pointing to the Tuesday primaries as being “D-Day” for Hillary Clinton, saying that unless she can earn decisive victories in both Ohio and Texas, she should consider suspending her campaign.
Source: The New York Times
Reference: Keeping abreast of the election
The New York Times Delegate Count offers a comprehensive analysis of the entire primary season, including delegate counts and results of individual state contests.
Source: The New York Times
Real Clear Politics provides an average of national polls showing Barack Obama with an overall lead, but razor-thin margins separating the candidates in Ohio and Texas.
Source: Real Clear Politics
Though clearly not an unbiased source, Texans for Obama offers a comprehensive analysis of the Texas system, broken down into congressional districts.
Source: Texans for Obama
The State of Texas provides a demographic breakdown of the state.
Source: The state of Texas Web site
Most Recent Beyond The Headlines
© 2012 Dulcinea Media, Inc.
