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Iowa Victories Don’t Convince Everyone
by
findingDulcinea Staff
Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee win the first round of caucuses. But there is much to suggest that these early successes are of little use when it comes to forecasting the final result.
30-Second Summary
Both candidates represent, according to the journalistic consensus, a shift from the status quo. Democratic candidate Barack Obama has emphasized change as the central theme of his campaign; Huckabee pursues a grassroots conservative initiative.
Obama appealed strongly to young and female voters. He also won the support of many Independents, who may prove to be the deciding factor in the primaries.
Huckabee beat his closest rival and one-time Republican favorite—Mitt Romney—by nearly 10 percent. His wide appeal to evangelical voters contributed significantly to his win. Although he was outspent by Romney 15:1, Huckabee’s ideological stance that “Iowa cannot be bought,” struck a chord with the state's independent-minded electorate.
Despite these initial gains, however, both candidates face great challenges during the next phases of the primaries. Many pundits argue that in other states funding and aggressive campaigning by their rivals will make the Iowa caucus an irrelevance.
Obama appealed strongly to young and female voters. He also won the support of many Independents, who may prove to be the deciding factor in the primaries.
Huckabee beat his closest rival and one-time Republican favorite—Mitt Romney—by nearly 10 percent. His wide appeal to evangelical voters contributed significantly to his win. Although he was outspent by Romney 15:1, Huckabee’s ideological stance that “Iowa cannot be bought,” struck a chord with the state's independent-minded electorate.
Despite these initial gains, however, both candidates face great challenges during the next phases of the primaries. Many pundits argue that in other states funding and aggressive campaigning by their rivals will make the Iowa caucus an irrelevance.
Headline Links: Obama and Huckabee win Iowa
According to the Financial Times, Obama and Huckabee triumphed in Iowa by embodying a departure from the establishment. Both candidates appealed to a public sense of disappointment and dissatisfaction with the current party line. They have fewer ties to Washington than their rivals. However, other candidates may take a cue from this defeat and incorporate a message of change into their upcoming campaigns—which could threaten Obama and Huckabee’s lead.
Source: Financial Times
Key Players: Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee
Barack Obama
The New York Times attributes Barack Obama’s victory over Democratic rivals Hillary Clinton and John Edwards to his strong platform for change. Obama won more of the female vote than expected, and was successful in reaching out to the young.
Source: The New York Times
Mike Huckabee
The Boston Globe dissects Huckabee’s appeal among conservative voters. Citing a grassroots strategy that incorporated a “network of conservative bloggers and evangelical Christians,” the article explores the informal base of Huckabee supporters and how these voters might impact the next phase of the primaries.
Source: The Boston Globe
Related Links: Official statistics
MSNBC outlines the statistics that put Obama and Huckabee in first place. Descriptions of specific demographics accompany voter percentages.
Source: MSNBC
Opinion & Analysis: Forecasts for Obama and Huckabee
On Obama
The Boston Globe analyzes Obama’s win in Iowa, writing that the momentum gained from this victory will most likely last until the New Hampshire primary in five days. Clinton and Edwards, on the other hand, face a more difficult obstacle as they have little time to recover.
Source: The Boston Globe
Obama’s positive campaign geared toward hope and ideology appealed to the Iowa electorate, according to Foster’s Daily Democrat. “Notoriously resistant to negative campaigning” is how Foster’s describes the local voters. However, the election process will differ in New Hampshire, and candidates with great resources who are willing to attack Obama’s rhetoric and platforms—such as his health care proposal—may fare better.
Source: Foster’s Daily Democrat
The Concord Monitor explains that Clinton and Edwards are likely to benefit from increased funding from New Hampshire groups and unions concerned that Obama’s health care plan will leave 15 million uninsured. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, the American Federation of Teachers and Emily's List, all support Clinton, for example, but have not yet made contributions to her campaign in New Hampshire. Support from these organizations could drastically impact voter support.
Source: The Concord Monitor
On Huckabee
According to Eyeon08.com’s Soren Dayton, Mike Huckabee may not be very far from the conservative ideal, despite the many Republican doubters. His emphasis on family values and stable economic growth align him with traditional Republican concerns, writes Dayton. In addition, his attention to poor and disenfranchised American citizens makes him more compelling than many of his rivals. Yet, Dayton ultimately believes Americans will “swing behind McCain in order to stop Mike.”
Source: Eyeon08.com
The title of Politico’s article says it all: “GOP Race in Total Disarray.” The overwhelming defeat of Mitt Romney creates an opportunity for John McCain to become a serious contender as the New Hampshire primary approaches. McCain’s appeal to the large group of Independent voters in New Hampshire may secure his win. In addition, McCain’s emphasis on his foreign policy experience and reform may beat out Huckabee’s insistence on “class-based rhetoric” and “social issues.”
Source: Politico
The Concord Monitor predicts that Huckabee will struggle because of his campaign’s financial shortcomings. Huckabee’s “for the people” strategy may not hold up against the Romney, Giuliani and McCain campaigns, which have established large fundraising networks throughout New Hampshire that not only offer financial assistance, but also help spread their campaign messages. Fliers, pamphlets and advertising are also notably absent from the Huckabee campaign.
Source: The Concord Monitor
Historical Context: Primary elections
The government created the presidential primaries in the early 20th century to curtail the influence of state “party machines.” Before that, only the party leaders in each state could nominate candidates. Now, Republicans and Democrats use primaries to allow voters to choose their presidential nominees.
Source: FactMonster.com
“Iowa political leaders adopted a caucus system even before the region became a state in 1846,” according to a “A Brief History of the Iowa Caucus” published this January in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Source: Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Related Topics: ‘How Many Have Become President After Losing’
According to FactCheck.org, Bill Clinton is the only candidate in history to win the presidency despite losing both the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. Other candidates, such as George W. Bush in 2000, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Ronald Reagan in 1980 managed to reach the White House after losing one of those two early contests. In fact, in the nine election cycles since the modern primaries system began, the major nominees from each party have only won in both states twice—in 1976 and 2004.
Source: FactCheck.org
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