Election News and Features
How Bloomberg Could Stall the Presidential Election
by
findingDulcinea Staff
If New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs for president and wins his home state, he could split the Electoral College. In that event, the battle for the presidency might reach a stalemate.
30-Second Summary
In June 2007, the Web site Real Clear Politics looked at the possible impact New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg could have on the presidential race if he ran in 2008.
The site speculates that he might get enough of the vote from the Electoral College to prevent any presidential candidate from securing the majority of 270 or more electoral votes needed to win.
In that event, the House of Representatives would decide on the victor. Each of the 50 states would cast one vote to elect the president.
That would leave the Democrats with a one-vote advantage over the Republicans. If that vote were to go to the independent candidate in the race, then the election would be tied again.
At that point, according to the 12th Amendment, the vice president, elected by the Senate, would temporarily take on the role of president until the House made up its mind.
Thankfully, it has never come to that. On the two occasions when the Electoral College failed to produce a clear majority, in 1800 and 1824, the House was able to decide on a candidate.
The site speculates that he might get enough of the vote from the Electoral College to prevent any presidential candidate from securing the majority of 270 or more electoral votes needed to win.
In that event, the House of Representatives would decide on the victor. Each of the 50 states would cast one vote to elect the president.
That would leave the Democrats with a one-vote advantage over the Republicans. If that vote were to go to the independent candidate in the race, then the election would be tied again.
At that point, according to the 12th Amendment, the vice president, elected by the Senate, would temporarily take on the role of president until the House made up its mind.
Thankfully, it has never come to that. On the two occasions when the Electoral College failed to produce a clear majority, in 1800 and 1824, the House was able to decide on a candidate.
Headline Link: ‘Michael Bloomberg vs. the 12th Amendment’
In June 2007, Real Clear Politics questioned what impact New York City Major Michael Bloomberg would have on the presidential race if he ran in 2008. The site speculated that while he would have little chance of winning the presidency, he might get a few electoral votes and prevent either of his opponents securing the majority of 270 electoral votes necessary to win. In this case, the House of Representatives would vote. Each state would have one vote. Consequently, the Democrats would have only a one-vote advantage over the Republicans.
Source: Real Clear Politics
Reference Material: Electoral College and the tiebreaker
Electoral College
The Electoral College comprises 538 electors, who are elected by their states to vote in the presidential election. Each state gets one vote for each member of the House of Representatives plus two votes for its senators. That comes to 535 votes; an additional three votes are awarded to the District of Columbia. Presidential and vice presidential candidates need to win a majority of 270 electoral votes. Yet, the Federal Register states, there is no constitutional provision or federal law requiring electors “to vote in accordance with the popular vote in their state.”
Source: Federal Register
As the Federal Register explains, if no presidential candidate gets the 270 electoral votes necessary to become president, the House of Representatives chooses among the candidates. In that instance, each state can cast one vote. The vice president is elected by the Senate. Furthermore, the Federal Register states that if two presidential candidates tie in a state’s popular vote, the electoral voters should refer to that state’s law concerning how to break the tie. “Federal law would allow a state to hold a run-off election,” it states.
Source: Federal Register
The U.S. Department of State offers a detailed explanation of the Electoral College from the Congressional Research Service. The document will download as a PDF.
Source: U.S. Department of State
The 12th Amendment
The 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which was passed on December 9, 1803, and ratified on June 15, 1804, explains the construction of the Electoral College.
Source: The National Archives
'Deadlock: What Happens if Nobody Wins'
In The Atlantic, constitutional scholars Laurence H. Tribe and Thomas M. Rollins considered the question of what happens in the event of a split vote in the electoral college. The piece was written in 1980, and Tribe would later argue in favor of Al Gore when the Supreme Court decided who won the 2000 presidential election.
Source: The Atlantic
Analysis: Real Clear Politics; Interactive Electoral College map
Real Clear Politics writer David Shribman poses a number of election-related questions in his article "'Survivor' Election 2008." Questions asked include the following: “How will the Internet change campaigning? Will some states opt out of the traditional Electoral College scheme and divide their votes rather than sending them in a big block, as they pretty much have done since the 18th century? Will voters choose a candidate they don't like even if they think she is competent and has mastery of the skills they believe a president needs? Will the apparent success of the Iraq surge provide a surge in support for the candidate who supported it in the first place?”
Source: Real Clear Politics
270towin.com provides an interactive map of the United States showing the distribution of electoral votes among the states. On clicking a state, a user can choose whether it should go Republican (Red) or Democratic (Blue) so users can play out scenarios with different swing states.
Source: 270towin.com
Historical Context: 1800 and 1824 elections
The Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives explains that the elections of 1800 and 1824 are the only ones in which a presidential candidate did not receive a majority of the Electoral College votes. The three candidates were William H. Crawford of Georgia, secretary of the Treasury; John Quincy Adams of Massachusetts, secretary of state; and Andrew Jackson of Tennessee, a U.S. senator. “Since there was no winner, the state delegations of the House then cast secret ballots. Adams won 13 of the 24 states on the first ballot,” writes the House.
Source: The Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives
Most Recent Beyond The Headlines
© 2012 Dulcinea Media, Inc.
