Election News and Features
Economic Woes Affect Elections Past, Present
February 09, 2008 12:04 AM
by
findingDulcinea Staff
History has shown that a flagging economy can be a serious obstacle for the party in power come election time.
30-Second Summary
Republican President George W. Bush approaches the end of his second term amidst economic troubles. To win this year's election, the GOP will have to convince voters that the party is not to blame.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in January, and President Bush presented Congress with his economic stimulus package.
But those measures may be too late to do the Republicans much good in the 2008 elections.
At the time of President George H.W. Bush’s 1992 bid for re-election, the economy had begun to rebound from the 1991 recession. But Edmund L. Andrews of The New York Times writes that "job growth remained so slow that Bill Clinton was able to defeat Bush … by sounding alarms about a ‘jobless recovery.’”
Herbert Hoover’s policies were blamed for the Great Depression of 1929, opening the way for Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt to become the commander in chief for a record three terms. That comparison was considered at length recently by the BBC.
Of course, an economic downturn can spell electoral disaster for Democrats too when they are in office.
Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980 after a term marked by high unemployment and inflation.
Grover Cleveland lost his 1888 re-election bid to Benjamin Harrison because Cleveland was not thought committed to protectionist policies—considered necessary in the face of cheap Western European goods.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in January, and President Bush presented Congress with his economic stimulus package.
But those measures may be too late to do the Republicans much good in the 2008 elections.
At the time of President George H.W. Bush’s 1992 bid for re-election, the economy had begun to rebound from the 1991 recession. But Edmund L. Andrews of The New York Times writes that "job growth remained so slow that Bill Clinton was able to defeat Bush … by sounding alarms about a ‘jobless recovery.’”
Herbert Hoover’s policies were blamed for the Great Depression of 1929, opening the way for Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt to become the commander in chief for a record three terms. That comparison was considered at length recently by the BBC.
Of course, an economic downturn can spell electoral disaster for Democrats too when they are in office.
Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980 after a term marked by high unemployment and inflation.
Grover Cleveland lost his 1888 re-election bid to Benjamin Harrison because Cleveland was not thought committed to protectionist policies—considered necessary in the face of cheap Western European goods.
Analysis: 1968 and 2008
Jim Johnson compares the circumstances surrounding the elections of both 1968 and 2008: “Pop quiz: It's an election year. America is in the midst of a foreign war that is unpopular at home. The incumbent president is from the state of Texas. He had Congress authorize troops under less-than-truthful circumstances, but he is not running for re-election. The opposing party is promising to end the war and bring the troops home. What year is it? If you said 1968 or 2008, you would be right on both counts.”
Source: State of Sunshine blog
The 40th anniversary of one of the most turbulent years in contemporary American history has given writers pause for thought. The country again finds itself entangled in an unpopular foreign war as the president prepares to leave office.
Source: findingDulcinea
Historical Context: Economic cycles and presidential elections
Edmund L. Andrews writes that the 2008 elections “could be a haunting replay of what happened to President George H.W. Bush in 1992.” Any positive effects from the president’s fiscal stimulus package, or the 75-basis point emergency interest rate cut may not affect jobless rates in time to benefit the GOP. This bears similarities to November 1992, when the economy had begun to bounce back from the 1991 recession, but “job growth remained so slow that Clinton was able to defeat Bush … by sounding alarms about a ‘jobless recovery.’”
Source: The New York Times
Throughout U.S. history economic woes have made it difficult for incumbent parties to remain in the White House. Herbert Hoover’s presidency was blamed for the Great Depression of 1929, paving the way for Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s three terms of reform. Ronald Reagan, whom the BBC calls “the most popular Republican president of recent times,” was elected in 1980 amidst the stagflation that mired Democrat Jimmy Carter’s presidency.
Source: The BBC
The so-called “Long Depression,” which coincided with America’s Gilded Age, marked a shift by many industrialized economies towards protectionist policies as prices for Western European goods deflated. Thanks to his strong tariff policy, Republican Benjamin Harrison beat incumbent Democrat Grover Cleveland in the electoral vote, but lost the popular vote.
Source: MultiEd.com
Reference: Election data
U.S. Election Atlas features voting breakdowns for presidential elections going back to 1789, including voter turnout figures from 1932 onwards, and primary election data for the 2000 and 2004 election cycles.
Source: U.S. Election Atlas
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