Election News and Features
Bloomberg Doesn’t Campaign in Election Non-Bid
by
findingDulcinea Staff
Pollsters and journalists can’t stop chewing over the possibility of Bloomberg’s running for president—no matter how often he brushes aside the suggestion.
30-Second Summary
For all Bloomberg’s demurrals, his actions suggest to many observers that the mayor protests too much.
His revamped Web site emphasizes a new interest in national issues. And Bloomberg is keeping a close eye on the 2008 presidential race, splurging on polls in all U.S. states, according to the Associated Press. Allegedly, the polls are designed to gauge his chances of becoming president should he enter the race.
In his State of the City address on Jan. 17, Bloomberg berated politicians for their “xenophobic” positions on immigration. Earlier this month, at a bipartisan summit in Oklahoma, he attacked Washington’s partisan politics. “People have stopped working together, government is dysfunctional, there's no collaborating and congeniality,” he said.
Most pundits express the opinion that Bloomberg’s chances of winning are slim. An op-ed in The Wall Street Journal said “Mayor McTease” would be well advised to spend his money and energy on other, less ambitious projects.
That said, even though no independent candidate has won in modern U.S. history, independents and third-party candidates have had a real impact on presidential elections in the past. Ross Perot’s 1992 bid is often cited as having helped Bill Clinton defeat the first President George Bush.
Some analysts see Bloomberg, an ex-Republican, taking away Republican votes, while others say he will split the Democratic vote. He is a former Democrat as well and has very Democratic stances on abortion, firearms and immigration.
Real Clear Politics predicted he might get just enough votes to stall the election.
Pollster Frank Luntz anticipates that Bloomberg will affect this election profoundly, but that he is unlikely to win.
His revamped Web site emphasizes a new interest in national issues. And Bloomberg is keeping a close eye on the 2008 presidential race, splurging on polls in all U.S. states, according to the Associated Press. Allegedly, the polls are designed to gauge his chances of becoming president should he enter the race.
In his State of the City address on Jan. 17, Bloomberg berated politicians for their “xenophobic” positions on immigration. Earlier this month, at a bipartisan summit in Oklahoma, he attacked Washington’s partisan politics. “People have stopped working together, government is dysfunctional, there's no collaborating and congeniality,” he said.
Most pundits express the opinion that Bloomberg’s chances of winning are slim. An op-ed in The Wall Street Journal said “Mayor McTease” would be well advised to spend his money and energy on other, less ambitious projects.
That said, even though no independent candidate has won in modern U.S. history, independents and third-party candidates have had a real impact on presidential elections in the past. Ross Perot’s 1992 bid is often cited as having helped Bill Clinton defeat the first President George Bush.
Some analysts see Bloomberg, an ex-Republican, taking away Republican votes, while others say he will split the Democratic vote. He is a former Democrat as well and has very Democratic stances on abortion, firearms and immigration.
Real Clear Politics predicted he might get just enough votes to stall the election.
Pollster Frank Luntz anticipates that Bloomberg will affect this election profoundly, but that he is unlikely to win.
Headline Links: Polls and speeches, but no campaign
According to Bloomberg's former political adviser Douglas Schoen, New York City’s mayor will use the polls he has commissioned to gauge his chances in a presidential race. State Independence Party Chairman Frank McKay told Newsday Bloomberg has been polling in Wyoming, Minnesota and New Mexico since early December. However, when asked about the polls on Jan. 9, Bloomberg denied—yet again—that he would run.
Source: Newsday
New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg attended a bipartisan summit hosted by the University of Oklahoma, where he spoke against partisanship. “People have stopped working together, government is dysfunctional, there's no collaborating and congeniality,” Bloomberg said. Democrats and Republicans at the forum said that Bloomberg’s presidential bid as an independent candidate depends on whether candidates from the two major parties move closer to the political center. The Boston Globe noted that even as talk of his potential bid has intensified, Bloomberg has repeated time and again that he is not running.
Source: The Boston Globe
Background: ‘For 2 years, Bloomberg aides prepared for bid’
In June 2007, The New York Times reported that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg had left the Republican Party to prepare for a presidential bid as an independent candidate. His aides had been preparing the groundwork for two years, the Times wrote. However, Bloomberg said he will not be running.
Source: The New York Times
Opinion & Analysis: Candidate Bloomberg?
Pro
There are clear signs that Bloomberg is planning to run, wrote two columnists in May 2007 in The Politico, a magazine covering U.S. politics. He has launched a revamped Web site that focuses heavily on national issues. The magazine also speculates as to who his potential running mates might be. According to The Politico, if he runs he is likely to have a significant impact on the race; he is even likely to top Perot’s 19 percent from 1992, GOP pollster Frank Luntz said. In 1992, Ross Perot won a fifth of the popular vote. Only Theodore Roosevelt did better as an independent, when he ran in 1912. The column hints that the participation of independents in 1912 and 1992 may have helped elect Roosevelt and Bill Clinton respectively. Bloomberg will probably take away more Republican than Democratic votes.
Source: The Politico
All presidential candidates emphasize that they stand for change and come down hard on Washington. “As the rancor toward Washington grows, voters could become turned off and discouraged, opening the way to a serious independent or third-party presidential bid, according to some political practitioners,” the AP reported. Pat Choate, Texas billionaire Ross Perot’s 1996 running mate, said that this year a third candidate may have more of a chance, because there is no incumbent on the ballot. Unnamed Bloomberg associates told the AP that New York City’s mayor is conducting “detailed polling and sophisticated voter analysis in all 50 states.”
Source: The Associated Press
Contra
Mayor Bloomberg’s position on most issues that matter in the presidential race will not appeal to average Americans, according to a Wall Street Journal op-ed. Most poll results are against him, and so are the odds: no modern third-party candidate has come even close to winning. So, “Mayor McTease,” as the op-ed referred to him, had better concentrates on other options for his future career, it concluded.
Source: The Wall Street Journal
“If Bloomberg feels like it, he can put a Presidential run on his Amex card. His credit is good. And he is experienced in self-financing,” wrote New Yorker editor David Remnick. However, even with an excellent mayoral record, he hasn’t got much besides his wealth and anti-partisanship rhetoric to prod him forward.
Source: The New Yorker
In response to the press response to Bloomberg’s appearance at a bipartisan summit in Oklahoma, columnist Michelle Malkin writes that bipartisanship is overrated. “Bipartisanship brought us McCain-Feingold, No Child Left Behind, and almost rammed through the McCain-Kennedy-Bush-Reid shamnesty,” the columnist wrote. In March 2007, in connection with Bloomberg’s potential bid for the presidency, she asked on her Web site, “Aren’t there enough pro-abortion, anti-gun, open borders candidates running for president?”
Source: Michelle Malkin’s Web site
Member Chris W. wrote on Gather.com that if Bloomberg ran as an independent candidate, he would split the Democratic vote and send a Republican into office. Third-party candidates have almost always failed in the past, even when, like Theodore Roosevelt, they managed to get a significant portion of the popular vote.
Source: Gather.com
In June 2007, Real Clear Politics questioned what impact New York City Major Michael Bloomberg would have on the presidential race if he ran in 2008. The site speculated that while he would have little chance of winning the presidency, he might get a few electoral votes and prevent either of his opponents securing the majority of 270 electoral votes necessary to win. In this case, the House of Representatives would vote. Each state would have one vote. Consequently, the Democrats would have only a one-vote advantage over the Republicans.
Source: Real Clear Politics
Bloomberg does not have enough going for him to become president, a columnist wrote in The Politico. A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll showed 35 percent of registered voters had not heard of Bloomberg as of May last year. As Bloomberg himself asked once, “How can a 5-foot-7, divorced, billionaire Jew running as an independent from New York possibly have a chance?”
Source: The Politico
Recent history: Twentieth-century Independents
The Politico has a slideshow that measures the impact of Independent presidential candidates in the twentieth century. In 1968, Richard Nixon narrowly avoided losing to Hubert H. Humphrey; the independent candidate was George C. Wallace. In 1992, independent Ross Perot helped elect Bill Clinton over the first President George Bush. And Al Gore supporters say that Ralph Nader took enough votes away from their candidate in 2000 to help George W. Bush win.
Source: The Politico
Reference Material: Keeping an eye on Bloomberg
“To those who are wailing against immigration, to those politicians who, all of a sudden, have embraced xenophobia, I say: open your eyes,” New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg’s said in his State of the City address on Jan. 17. He said immigration "is what makes America great. This is New York City. This is Freedom. This is Compassion, and Democracy, and Opportunity.” A transcript of his speech can be found on his Web site.
Source: Michael Bloomberg’s Web site
The Web site Third Party Watch provides a section dedicated to updates on Bloomberg’s potential candidacy.
Source: Third Party Watch
Related Topics: 'How Bloomberg Could Stall the Presidential Election'
If New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg runs for president and wins his home state, he could split the Electoral College. In that event, the battle for the presidency might reach a stalemate.
Source: findingDulcinea
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