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Network Theory Research May Halt Spread of Potential Epidemic
by
Rachel Balik
Computer simulations indicate that immunizing specific individuals within a social network may slow or stop the spread of disease.
30-Second Summary
Humans and computers alike may benefit from new research that suggests epidemics can be prevented by dividing a social network into equal sections and targeting the nodes connecting those sections. Computer simulations indicate that this strategy is more effective than simply targeting the most well-connected nodes. The research could literally be life-saving during a disease outbreak when only limited doses of medication are available.
In the more immediate future, the research may be more helpful in stopping the spread of computer viruses, as it’s easier to map the structure of a portion of the Internet than that of a human social network. Nevertheless, scientists continue to add to their understanding of human social networks—in some cases, without their subjects’ consent.
When an epidemic does occur, doctors may have to make some hard choices about whom to treat. A task force has recommended that if there is a reduced supply of medicine during an epidemic, doctors should not treat the elderly, the severely injured, the chronically diseased and the mentally disabled.
In the more immediate future, the research may be more helpful in stopping the spread of computer viruses, as it’s easier to map the structure of a portion of the Internet than that of a human social network. Nevertheless, scientists continue to add to their understanding of human social networks—in some cases, without their subjects’ consent.
When an epidemic does occur, doctors may have to make some hard choices about whom to treat. A task force has recommended that if there is a reduced supply of medicine during an epidemic, doctors should not treat the elderly, the severely injured, the chronically diseased and the mentally disabled.
Headline Link: ‘Strategy to Stop a Pandemic’
The study is scheduled to be published in Physical Review Letters. In various computer simulations, researchers found that by immunizing certain people, or nodes, within a network, they could prevent a disease from spreading. Rather than choosing the nodes with the most connections, the researchers divided the network into equal sections, and targeted the nodes connecting those sections. “The idea of splitting a network into equal subnetworks is very simple, yet quite successful,” network theory expert Dirk Brockmann said. If there were a disease outbreak and a limited number of vaccines, this discovery could be crucial in saving lives. In addition, the technique might also be used to stop the spread of a computer virus or break up a terrorist network.
Source: Science News
Background: Understanding social networks and treating epidemics
Evidence from a recent influenza study indicates that high school networks “may form the local transmission backbone of the next pandemic,” Dr. Robert J. Glass of Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque says. Researchers analyzed the social networks in an elementary school, a middle school and a high school and found that looking at the myriad social groups of high school students provided insight into understanding how a flu pandemic might spread. “With that kind of understanding you can then ask questions about where to target interventions,” Glass said.
Source: Reuters
If health care does have to be rationed during an epidemic, there are guidelines about whom it is best to treat. The Associated Press reported that a pandemic triage task force has advised not treating people over 85; people with “severe trauma”; patients over the age of 60 who have been severely burned; those with “severe mental impairment,” such as advanced Alzheimer’s disease; and people with a “severe chronic disease.”
Source: findingDulcinea
Related Topic: Tracking social network raises ethical questions
For six months, the movements of 100,000 people in an undisclosed industrialized nation were tracked using their cell phones. Although neither the users nor their nationality were identified, there were still concerns over privacy issues, as their movements were tracked without their consent. Researchers hoped to use the data to theorize how an epidemic might spread through a population.
Source: findingDulcinea
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