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HIV/AIDS Infection Estimates Drop Worldwide
by
findingDulcinea Staff
The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS reports that internationally fewer people are contracting the HIV virus than previously thought; but there are suspicions that U.S. infection rates are on the rise.
30-Second Summary
On Dec. 1, as the world commemorated World AIDS Day, two prominent health agencies were reconsidering the statistics measuring the spread of the pandemic.
UNAIDS, the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS, has reduced its global estimate of people living with the virus in 2007 to approximately 33.2 million, down from 39.5 million in 2006.
At the same time, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control said that it is reviewing the accuracy of its most recent infection estimates, putting a hold on the data’s release.
Aids advocacy groups such as the Community HIV/AIDS Mobilization Project, or CHAMP, allege that the numbers will show that at least 35 percent more Americans are infected with the AIDS virus each year than the government has been reporting. The advocates allege that the delay in releasing the data as been, at least in part, politically motivated.
The estimated number of new infections per year in the United States has remained at 40,000 for more than a decade. However, in recent years federal funding for HIV prevention has declined. Advocacy groups say this trend has undermined the efforts of organizations that provide prevention and other services to HIV patients.
CHAMP Executive Director Julie Davids told the Associated Press that if the CDC’s estimates are in fact higher than previously published, it will not be immediately certain whether the rate of infection itself is on the rise or previous statistics were wrong.
“But either way, this shows that prevention efforts are insufficient,” Davids said. The CDC is expected to release its analysis in early 2008.
UNAIDS, the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS, has reduced its global estimate of people living with the virus in 2007 to approximately 33.2 million, down from 39.5 million in 2006.
At the same time, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control said that it is reviewing the accuracy of its most recent infection estimates, putting a hold on the data’s release.
Aids advocacy groups such as the Community HIV/AIDS Mobilization Project, or CHAMP, allege that the numbers will show that at least 35 percent more Americans are infected with the AIDS virus each year than the government has been reporting. The advocates allege that the delay in releasing the data as been, at least in part, politically motivated.
The estimated number of new infections per year in the United States has remained at 40,000 for more than a decade. However, in recent years federal funding for HIV prevention has declined. Advocacy groups say this trend has undermined the efforts of organizations that provide prevention and other services to HIV patients.
CHAMP Executive Director Julie Davids told the Associated Press that if the CDC’s estimates are in fact higher than previously published, it will not be immediately certain whether the rate of infection itself is on the rise or previous statistics were wrong.
“But either way, this shows that prevention efforts are insufficient,” Davids said. The CDC is expected to release its analysis in early 2008.
Headline Links: AIDS statistics in the U.S. and abroad
Despite the downward revision in global HIV infection estimates, the San Francisco Chronicle writes that the number “still represents a ghastly human tragedy. The same analysis predicts that this year, 2.1 million will die of the disease and another 2.5 million will have become newly infected—6,800 new infections every day.” The Chronicle goes on to point out that for Sub-Saharan Africa, the “picture is still grim. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the epicenter of the global pandemic. Two out of three people in the world infected with HIV live there, and three out of four AIDS deaths occur there.”
Source: San Francisco Chronicle
UNAIDS has issued a press release explaining why the estimates were revised, and examining this year’s statistics. The UNAIDS Web site provides a PDF of the release.
Source: The UNAIDS Web site
U.S. infection estimates
Until 1992, the CDC used the number of diagnosed AIDS cases to estimate how many people were infected with HIV each year. That method led to an estimate of 40,000 to 80,000 new infections. However, recently the CDC has concentrated on infections among men who have sex with men, extrapolating and adjusting the figure to produce the 40,000 person estimate. In 2005, the projected number of HIV/AIDS diagnoses was 40,608. The total number of people living with AIDS was estimated at 952,629.
Source: CNN
Reactions: CDC explains delay and groups encourage prevention efforts
The CDC has issued a press release responding to media reports about the statistical revisions. The release emphasizes that the its new estimates are not final. Director of the National Centers for HIV/AIDS Prevention Dr. Kevin Fenton writes, “Given the importance of the new estimates in guiding HIV prevention policy and programs, CDC's public health responsibility is to ensure accurate information. The estimates have been submitted for further analysis and rigorous scientific review to ensure the accuracy of the complex new methods and of the estimates themselves ... we anticipate releasing the new estimates in early 2008.”
Source: The CDC Web site
The non-profit Women’s Bioethics Project gave its reaction to the new global and U.S. estimates: “In light of the numbers, showing decrease due to education, or increase because of a reinterpretation of numbers, we owe it to ourselves, to everyone, to accurately educate and contribute to preventing the spread of this infectious disease.”
Source: Women’s Bioethics Project Web site
On Dec. 1, the Detroit Free Press printed an op-ed encouraging more efforts to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS: “It may seem like good news that the United Nations … has lowered its estimate of the number of people infected with the AIDS virus … But in this World AIDS Day, progress at stopping the pandemic is still well short of targets … Even the lower number of people infected is still a record. This year alone, an estimated 2.5 million people were newly infected, and more than 2 million died from this incurable but preventable disease … Small but encouraging improvements in infection and mortality rates should only strengthen the commitment of community, state, national and world leaders to fighting what, for most of the people stricken with it, remains a deadly plague.”
Source: Detroit Free Press
Reference Material: Information on HIV/AIDS
The May Clinic provides information on HIV testing, including who should get tested, how the tests are conducted and what the results mean.
Source: The Mayo Clinic Web site
The Centers for Disease Control offers basic information on HIV and AIDS, how the virus is transmitted and the treatments available.
Source: The CDC Web site
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