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Forecasters Cautious as Hurricane Season Nears
May 23, 2008 11:03 AM
by
Josh Katz
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that this season will be slightly worse than normal, but recent criticism for overestimation has led forecasters to hedge.
30-Second Summary
Hurricane season officially begins on June 1. The NOAA predicts that there will be 12–16 named storms this year. Of them, forecasters expect six to nine hurricanes, including two to five major hurricanes.
An average hurricane season consists of 11 named storms, including and six hurricanes, two of them major. Last hurricane season comprised 15 named storms but kept to the average six hurricanes, two of which were major.
Forecasters have been criticized recently for overestimating the number of hurricanes, so this year the NOAA used percentages for the first time: scientists say there’s a 60–70 percent chance their prediction for this season is accurate. Louis Uccellini, director of the National Centers for Environmental Protection, said, “We learned a lesson.”
But the numbers still point to a worse than average season, and that brings up questions of preparedness. Some local New Orleans officials fear that their city may be lulled into a “false sense of safety” thanks to the past two relatively mild hurricane seasons, and the safety precautions may not be up to par, according to the Associated Press.
The NOAA’s predictions came less than a week after the debate over global warming’s effect on storms took a new turn. Meteorologist Tom Knutson was renowned for his belief that the warming of the oceans, resulting from global warming, was to blame for the recent increase in the number of hurricanes. But he published the results of a study on May 18 revealing that global warming may not be the culprit, that storms may actually decrease in the future, and that this might just be the high point of a natural cycle.
An average hurricane season consists of 11 named storms, including and six hurricanes, two of them major. Last hurricane season comprised 15 named storms but kept to the average six hurricanes, two of which were major.
Forecasters have been criticized recently for overestimating the number of hurricanes, so this year the NOAA used percentages for the first time: scientists say there’s a 60–70 percent chance their prediction for this season is accurate. Louis Uccellini, director of the National Centers for Environmental Protection, said, “We learned a lesson.”
But the numbers still point to a worse than average season, and that brings up questions of preparedness. Some local New Orleans officials fear that their city may be lulled into a “false sense of safety” thanks to the past two relatively mild hurricane seasons, and the safety precautions may not be up to par, according to the Associated Press.
The NOAA’s predictions came less than a week after the debate over global warming’s effect on storms took a new turn. Meteorologist Tom Knutson was renowned for his belief that the warming of the oceans, resulting from global warming, was to blame for the recent increase in the number of hurricanes. But he published the results of a study on May 18 revealing that global warming may not be the culprit, that storms may actually decrease in the future, and that this might just be the high point of a natural cycle.
Headline Link: Worse than average hurricane season
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says this hurricane season “may be more active than usual,” according to Bloomberg.com. For the first time, forecasters are giving a probability that their hurricane predictions will be correct: 60–70 percent. The administration says odds are high that 6–9 hurricanes will form in the 2008 season among 12–16 named storms, and 2–5 hurricanes could be major.
Source: Bloomberg.com
Forecasters decided to line their predictions with percentages this year because they have taken some criticism in the past for being incorrect, according to Florida’s Sarasota Herald-Tribune. Louis Uccellini, director of the National Centers for Environmental Protection, said, “We know from last year there were issues relating to the forecasts made by us, the forecasts made by others and how people reacted to those. The point is, we don’t have the skill level to predict the exact number of storms.”
Source: Sarasota Herald-Tribune
Background: Global warming’s effect on storms; ‘10 Costliest Hurricanes’
Meteorologist Tom Knutson released a study on May 18 altering his view on global warming’s relation to hurricanes. Although he previously believed that the heating of oceanic waters spurred the recent spate of hurricanes, he now believes that warmer temperatures will decrease the number of hurricanes. Instead, he says, the recent increase in hurricanes could just be the result of a natural, multidecade cycle. However, he does predict that storms “will be wetter and fiercer,” according to the Associated Press.
Source: Associated Press
ABC News describes the “10 Costliest Hurricanes,” seven of which have hit since 2004. Hurricane Katrina took the largest toll, costing $81 billion.
Source: ABC News
Opinion & Analysis: What to make of the conflicting reports over storms
The Worcester Telegram notes that there is plenty of disagreement as to whether global warming is fueling powerful hurricanes. The editorial writes, “While climatologists try to sort out the hurricane research, policymakers and the public should keep an open mind to the best information researchers have to offer, and a weather eye out for the politicization of science.”
Source: Worcester Telegram
Related Topics: New Orleans prepares, Houston stays put
With another hurricane season around the corner, some say New Orleans may not be fully prepared. Although New Orleans escaped the last two hurricane seasons unscathed, “some local officials fear the respite may have contributed to a false sense of safety in parts of the city that still face great danger,” Reuters reports.
Source: Reuters
“Thirty-nine percent of Houston-area residents say they would not leave their homes if a major hurricane was heading for Houston, according to a report from Allstate Insurance Co.” More than half of the respondents said traffic jams contributed to that decision; 79 percent said their homes would provide enough safety; and 40 percent said they had to protect their homes from theft.
Source: Houston Business Journal
Reference: Home protection
FindingDulcinea’s Web Guide to Home Protection rounds up the best online sources for information about protecting your home from storms, natural disasters, and other hazards.
Source: findingDulcinea
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