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‘Very Active’ Hurricane Season Predicted for 2008
May 31, 2008 12:48 PM
by
findingDulcinea Staff
A new computer modeling system predicts an active hurricane season with at least one major U.S. landfall, but critics say such forecasts are unreliable.
30-Second Summary
Scientists now say this year’s June-November hurricane season will be “very active,” with a probable 15 tropical storms and eight hurricanes, and a 69 percent chance that one of the storms will hit the U.S. coastline.
“To put it in perspective…we're calling for about 160 percent of an average hurricane season this year," scientist Phil Klotzbach told USA Today.
Based on warmer-than-average ocean temperatures observed in March and April, Klotzbach revised earlier forecasts upward.
Along with fellow researcher William Gray of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, Klotzbach used new weather-modeling software that he developed for greater accuracy, after mistaken predictions he made during the past two seasons caused him to “lose sleep.”
But critics question whether such forecasts, made five months before prime hurricane season, are any use at all.
Eric Berger of SciGuy says that current tools make early forecasting inaccurate, adding that Gray and Klotzbach’s August forecasts are more reliable. Experts quoted in the Los Angeles Times also say early forecasts may confuse the public or lead to inadequate hurricane preparations.
Recent weather catastrophes such as Hurricane Katrina raised concerns that global warming may be increasing the intensity of major storms. But New Scientist calls the belief that Katrina was caused by global warming “a myth.”
“The chaotic nature of weather makes it impossible to prove that any single event such as Hurricane Katrina is due to global warming,” writes Emma Young.
“To put it in perspective…we're calling for about 160 percent of an average hurricane season this year," scientist Phil Klotzbach told USA Today.
Based on warmer-than-average ocean temperatures observed in March and April, Klotzbach revised earlier forecasts upward.
Along with fellow researcher William Gray of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, Klotzbach used new weather-modeling software that he developed for greater accuracy, after mistaken predictions he made during the past two seasons caused him to “lose sleep.”
But critics question whether such forecasts, made five months before prime hurricane season, are any use at all.
Eric Berger of SciGuy says that current tools make early forecasting inaccurate, adding that Gray and Klotzbach’s August forecasts are more reliable. Experts quoted in the Los Angeles Times also say early forecasts may confuse the public or lead to inadequate hurricane preparations.
Recent weather catastrophes such as Hurricane Katrina raised concerns that global warming may be increasing the intensity of major storms. But New Scientist calls the belief that Katrina was caused by global warming “a myth.”
“The chaotic nature of weather makes it impossible to prove that any single event such as Hurricane Katrina is due to global warming,” writes Emma Young.
Headline Links: ‘Experts Predict “Very Active” Atlantic Hurricane Season’
Researchers William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University released “Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and U.S. Landfall Strike Probability for 2008” on April 9: “We foresee a well above-average Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2008. We have increased our seasonal forecast from our initial early December prediction. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States major hurricane landfall.”
Source: Colorado State University [PDF]
USA Today summarizes Gray and Philip Klotzbach’s updated 2008 hurricane predictions. Their forecast calls for a “very active” Atlantic hurricane season in 2008, including 15 storms and eight hurricanes, of which four will be major hurricanes of Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale or stronger. Klotzbach devised a new computer statistical model after his team overestimated the last two hurricane seasons, saying he said he lost sleep over the mistake.
Source: USA Today
The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and lasts through November 30; the most active weeks are typically in late August and early September. Voice of America quotes the Colorado State University team as saying that weather conditions this year favor the development of storms, although the current season should not be as active as other recent storm seasons. “But it only takes one storm making landfall in your particular town to make it an active hurricane season for you,” said Klotzbach.
Source: Voice of America
Opinion & Analysis: ‘Should We Pay Attention to Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts?’
Eric Berger of SciGuy questions the utility of hurricane forecasts that are made five months before the peak of hurricane season. “However, I believe what Gray and Klotzbach are trying to do is forecast the weather months ahead of time, and that’s difficult, if not impossible to do, at least with current technology. Their August forecasts for hurricane season are traditionally much more accurate.”
Source: The Houston Chronicle
The long-range hurricane forecasts of Gray and Klotzbach may not be useful and may even be harmful to the public, according to critics quoted in a Los Angeles Times report. Some experts believe that the forecasts so far in advance contain too much margin for error, and may lead to confusion and complacency. “The forecasts tell you nothing about whether you’re going to get hit in any given year—even if they’re dead-on accurate,” said senior hurricane specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County.
Source: Los Angeles Times
The Caymanian Compass advises its readers not to wait until the last minute to prepare for dangerous weather, despite the unpredictable nature of the hurricane season. “Bottom line, no one really knows what this hurricane season is going to be like,” it said in an editorial piece that advises readers to gather fresh hurricane supplies.
Source: The Caymanian Compass
Related Topics: Weather catastrophes and global warming
The New Scientist examines what it calls the myth that Hurricane Katrina was caused by global warming. “The chaotic nature of weather makes it impossible to prove that any single event such as Hurricane Katrina is due to global warming,” writes Emma Young. “It is also impossible to prove that global warming did not play a part, so debates about the causes of individual events are futile.”
Source: New Scientist
A study examined the number of hurricanes that develop every year and found that their incidence had more than doubled in the past century. The researchers concluded that global warming was playing a role. “We’re seeing a quite substantial increase in hurricanes over the last century, very closely related to increases in sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean,” said study author Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. But experts criticized the study for using data from the 19th and 20th centuries, when hurricane-tracking satellites did not exist.
Source: USA Today
Reference: The National Weather Service National Hurricane Center
The National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center explains the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, a 1–5 rating system of a hurricane’s intensity. The scale is used to estimate potential property damage and flooding expected from the event.
Source: The National Weather Service
The Union of Concerned Scientists outlines the ways in which global warming may be affecting the intensity of hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones. “Given the loss of life and the huge costs of rebuilding after hurricanes, it is essential to do whatever we can to avoid dangerous warming and protect America’s coastal communities for ourselves and our children.”
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists
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