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Basra Fighting Threatens Recent Gains in Iraq
by
findingDulcinea Staff
This week’s renewed violence in Basra ended the Mahdi Army’s seven-month ceasefire and left analysts wondering why the fighting began and when it will end.
30-Second Summary
On the orders of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Iraqi forces on Tuesday launched a crackdown on Shia leader Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army in Basra.
Since then, Basra has been in the grip of heavy fighting that has left at least 105 people dead and 300 injured.
However, peace negotiations may be underway. Al-Jazeera reports that Mahdi leaders are said to be holding talks to end the fighting, and Prime Minister al-Maliki on Friday extended a deadline for Shiite militants to hand in their weapons, offering a financial reward if they comply.
Still, the reason fighting broke out remains unclear.
“As with most things about Iraq, it's a more complex case than Bush makes it out to be,” writes Fred Kaplan for Slate, who suggests that Bush’s comments that “Iraqi security forces are waging a tough battle against militia fighters and criminals” is overly simplistic.
Both sides, he writes, “are essentially militias” and both sides have ties to Iran.
The Christian Science Monitor reports, however, that the American theory that rogue militia fighters in Basra are undoubtedly tied to Iran could have repercussions.
"This is pretty serious, and if the Iranians do not back down rapidly this will escalate," says Martin Navias, an analyst at Britain's Centre for Defense Studies at King's College in London.
Since then, Basra has been in the grip of heavy fighting that has left at least 105 people dead and 300 injured.
However, peace negotiations may be underway. Al-Jazeera reports that Mahdi leaders are said to be holding talks to end the fighting, and Prime Minister al-Maliki on Friday extended a deadline for Shiite militants to hand in their weapons, offering a financial reward if they comply.
Still, the reason fighting broke out remains unclear.
“As with most things about Iraq, it's a more complex case than Bush makes it out to be,” writes Fred Kaplan for Slate, who suggests that Bush’s comments that “Iraqi security forces are waging a tough battle against militia fighters and criminals” is overly simplistic.
Both sides, he writes, “are essentially militias” and both sides have ties to Iran.
The Christian Science Monitor reports, however, that the American theory that rogue militia fighters in Basra are undoubtedly tied to Iran could have repercussions.
"This is pretty serious, and if the Iranians do not back down rapidly this will escalate," says Martin Navias, an analyst at Britain's Centre for Defense Studies at King's College in London.
Headline Links: ‘Fighting Continues in Basra’
Fighting continued Thursday as “Basra remained in the grip of heavy fighting for the third day between the Iraqi army and Shia militias, with reports of explosions every few minutes,” according to Al-Jazeera. The fighting began Tuesday when Iraq launched attacks against the “lawless gangs” in Basra. On Thursday al-Sadr’s supporters staged protests against al-Maliki and the recent violence in the area. But, “Behind the scenes, government officials and senior Mahdi Army figures loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr, the Shia leader, are said to be holding talks to end the fighting,” Al-Jazeera reports.
Source: Al-Jazeera
“The U.S. blames the latest attacks on rogue Mahdi Army elements tied to Iran, but analysts say the spike in fighting with Shiite militants potentially opens a second front in the war when the American military is still doing battle with the Sunni extremists of al-Qaida in Iraq,” reports the Christian Science Monitor. Some analysts worry that the American accusations could lead to retaliation from Iran.
Source: The Christian Science Monitor
NPR’s Dina Temple-Raston explains that al-Maliki extended the deadline for when Shiite militants are expected to hand in their weapons until April 7, which could mean trouble for the prime minister. “This is a big deal because it’s going to be interpreted as a sign of weakness on his part. I mean, he set a deadline and he caved,” she said. “Maliki’s got himself into a bit of a predicament here.” As for the future, since the two groups are technically operating under a cease-fire, there’s no knowing how long the fighting will continue, Temple-Raston said.
Source: NPR
Reactions: Pres. Bush and Nouri al-Maliki
“This offensive builds on the security gains of the surge and demonstrates to the Iraqi people that their government is committed to protecting them,” President Bush said, addressing the Iraqi crackdown in Basra. A video report on his speech and the situation in Basra is available from Reuters.
Source: Reuters
“We have made up our minds to enter this battle and we will continue until the end. No retreat," said Prime Minister al-Maliki on Iraqi state television. Although the prime minister has “personally overseen the operation in Basra, which involves some 30,000 troops and police,” reports the BBC, Mahdi Army fighters loyal to al-Sadr remain in control of some of the most densely populated areas. President Bush has praised Maliki’s “bold decision” to crack down on Shia militias.
Source: The BBC
Opinions & Analysis: Theories behind the fighting
Fred Kaplan of Slate thinks that President Bush tends to oversimplify the matter in Basra when he asserts that ”Iraqi security forces are waging a tough battle against militia fighters and criminals in Basra … The reality, alas, is less stark. The fighting in Basra, which has spread to parts of Baghdad, is not a clash between good and evil or between a legitimate government and an outlaw insurgency. Rather, as Anthony Cordesman, military analyst for the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, writes, it is ‘a power struggle’ between rival ‘Shiite party mafias’ for control of the oil-rich south and other Shiite sections of the country.”
Source: Slate
The fighting in southern Iraq demonstrates the fragility of the U.S. troop advances seen during the last year. However, the fighting could also “be the prelude to a deadly new phase in Iraq’s multi-cornered civil war, sucking American (and residual British) forces into the struggle for power within the majority Shia community,” according to an editorial in the Financial Times.
Source: Financial Times
“Confused about what's going on in Basra? So is pretty much everyone,” writes Paul Kiel on Talking Points Memo’s Muckraker blog. Kiel explains the Basra situation, focusing on the fact that al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army has splintered, leaving rogue militias to instigate violent attacks in despite al-Sadr’s ceasefire agreement.
Source: TPM Muckraker
Related Topics: Demonstrations follow violence in Basra
While Bush praised Maliki’s offensive move in Basra, major demonstrations broke out in cities throughout Iraq on Thursday in response to the assault against the Mahdi Army. “The Americans share the Iraqi government’s hostility toward what they call rogue elements of the Mahdi Army but will also be faced with the consequences if the battles among Shiite factions erupt into more widespread unrest,” reports The New York Times.
Source: The New York Times (registration may be required)
Background: Al-Sadr calls for cease-fire
In August 2007, al-Sadr called for a six-month truce after fighting with a rival Shia group in Kerbala left more than 50 people dead. “A spokesman for the Mahdi Army claimed it would lay down its weapons for six months and, during this time, would attack neither rival Shia groups nor the U.S. army,” reported The Guardian.
Source: The Guardian
Reference: The Mahdi Army
The Mahdi Army was formed after Sadaam Hussein’s overthrow in April 2003 and is loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr, “a fiercely outspoken cleric who is popular among Iraq's poor, urban Shiite majority,” according to Reuters.
Source: Reuters
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